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प्रश्न
Explain cyclic variations
उत्तर
These variations are not necessarily uniformly periodic in nature.
That is, they may or may not follow exactly similar patterns after equal intervals of time.
Generally, one cyclic period ranges from 7 to 9 years and there is no hard and fast rule in the fixation of year for a cyclic period.
For example, every business cycle has a Start-Boom – Depression.
Recover, maintenance during booms and depressions, changes in government monetary policies, changes in interest rates.
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The following figures relates to the profits of a commercial concern for 8 years
| Year | Profit (₹) |
| 1986 | 15,420 |
| 1987 | 15,470 |
| 1988 | 15,520 |
| 1989 | 21,020 |
| 1990 | 26,500 |
| 1991 | 31,950 |
| 1992 | 35,600 |
| 1993 | 34,900 |
Find the trend of profits by the method of three yearly moving averages
Using three yearly moving averages, Determine the trend values from the following data.
| Year | Profit | Year | Profit |
| 2001 | 142 | 2007 | 241 |
| 2002 | 148 | 2008 | 263 |
| 2003 | 154 | 2009 | 280 |
| 2004 | 146 | 2010 | 302 |
| 2005 | 157 | 2011 | 326 |
| 2006 | 202 | 2012 | 353 |
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