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प्रश्न
Define secular trend
उत्तर
It is a general tendency of time series to increase or decrease or stagnates during a long period of time, an upward tendency is usually observed in population of a country, production, sales, prices in industries, income or individuals etc.
A downward tendency is observed in deaths, epidemics, prices of electronic gadgets, water sources, mortality rate etc.
It is not necessarily that the increase or decrease should be in the same direction throughout the given period of time.
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संबंधित प्रश्न
Explain the method of fitting a straight line
Compute the average seasonal movement for the following series
| Year | Quarterly Production | |||
| I | II | III | IV | |
| 2002 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| 2203 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 3. | 4.1 |
| 2004 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 37 | 4.2 |
| 2005 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3 | 4.4 |
| 2006 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
The following figures relates to the profits of a commercial concern for 8 years
| Year | Profit (₹) |
| 1986 | 15,420 |
| 1987 | 15,470 |
| 1988 | 15,520 |
| 1989 | 21,020 |
| 1990 | 26,500 |
| 1991 | 31,950 |
| 1992 | 35,600 |
| 1993 | 34,900 |
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| Year | No. of units (in '000) |
| 195 | 10 |
| 986 | 22 |
| 1987 | 36 |
| 198 | 62 |
| 1989 | 55 |
| 1990 | 0 |
| 1991 | 34 |
| 1992 | 50 |
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| Year | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| Sales (₹ '000) | 35 | 36 | 79 | 80 | 40 |
Compute the trend values for all years from 2000 to 2004
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