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Question
The following table gives the production of steel (in millions of tonnes) for years 1976 to 1986.
| Year | 1976 | 1977 | 1978 | 1979 | 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 |
| Production | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 10 |
Fit a trend line to the above data by the graphical method.
Solution
Taking year on X-axis and production on Y-axis, we plot the points for production corresponding to years. Joining these points by straight lines, we get the graph of the given time series. We draw trend line as shown in the figure.
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RELATED QUESTIONS
Use the method of least squares to fit a trend line to the data in Problem 1 above. Also, obtain the trend value for the year 1975.
Moving averages are useful in identifying ______.
Choose the correct alternative :
The following trend line equation was developed for annual sales from 1984 to 1990 with 1984 as base or zero year. Y = 500 + 60X (in 1000 Rs). The estimated sales for 1984 (in 1000 Rs) is:
Fill in the blank :
_______ component of time series is indicated by a smooth line.
_______ component of time series is indicated by periodic variation year after year.
_______ component of time series is indicated by a long wave spanning two or more years.
Fill in the blank :
_______ component of time series is indicated by up and down movements without any pattern.
State whether the following is True or False :
The secular trend component of time series represents irregular variations.
State whether the following is True or False :
Seasonal variation can be observed over several years.
Cyclical variation can occur several times in a year.
Irregular variation is not a random component of time series.
Which component of time series refers to erratic time series movements that follow no recognizable or regular pattern?
Choose the correct alternative:
An overall upward or downward pattern in an annual time series would be contained in which component of the times series?
______ components of time series is indicated by a smooth line
______ component of time series is indicated by periodic variation year after year.
State whether the following statement is True or False:
Seasonal variation can be observed over several years
