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Question
State whether the following statement is True or False:
The secular trend component of time series represents irregular variations
Options
True
False
Solution
False
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Number of accidents | 39 | 18 | 21 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 22 |
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We take origin to 18, we get, the number of accidents as follows:
Year | Number of accidents xt | t | u = t - 5 | u2 | u.xt |
2008 | 21 | 1 | -4 | 16 | -84 |
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2010 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 4 | -6 |
2011 | 10 | 4 | -1 | 1 | -10 |
2012 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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`sumx_t=68` | - | `sumu=0` | `sumu^2=60` | `square` |
The equation of trend is xt =a'+ b'u.
The normal equations are,
`sumx_t=na^'+b^'sumu ...(1)`
`sumux_t=a^'sumu+b^'sumu^2 ...(2)`
Here, n = 9, `sumx_t=68,sumu=0,sumu^2=60,sumux_t=-44`
Putting these values in normal equations, we get
68 = 9a' + b'(0) ...(3)
∴ a' = `square`
-44 = a'(0) + b'(60) ...(4)
∴ b' = `square`
The equation of trend line is given by
xt = `square`